D.F. Kalinin, O.I. Pogareva, Yu.A. Yanovskaya
Building probabilistic models and prediction schemes on the basis of geophysical data: analysis of regional petroleum potential of the pre-Jurassic complex in the Western Siberia
DOI: 10.31087/0016-7894-2018-3-77-85

The paper discusses application of probabilistic and statistical approach to prediction of oil and gas occurrence factors in the pre‑Jurassic sequences of the southern Tyumen region using geological and geophysical datasets. Methodology and principles of building probabilisti c predicti on solutions accompanied by effi ciency estimation is summarized. One of the features of the approach proposed is building formalized soluti ons with defining alternative prediction objects (geologically valid factors of oil and gas occurrence). We consider a procedure of separate reference hydrocarbon fields selection and grouping into alternative groups according to spatial variability of Palaeozoic basement top position, different structural and tectonic and geomorphological environment, and, as a consequence, different manifestation in potential fields. Reference groups are used in probabilistic prediction of zones similar in terms of complexes of most informative geological and geophysical characteristics and associated with regional oil and gas occurrence factors. Regional prediction of deep oil and gas occurrence factors in the pre‑Jurassic basement was carried out: a) using a set of transforms identified as a result of potenti al geophysical fields band‑pass filtering; b) using spatial distribution of singularities of functions describing anomalous geopotential fields; c) using a set of lithological and physical parameters determined from well data. We show a fragment of working area with predicted sites recommended for wildcat drilling. It is emphasized that probabilistic prediction is carried out with controlled prediction efficiency, using the independent geodata sets and reflects the regional factors of oil and gas occurrence in the pre‑Jurassic basement. The assumptions were made about association of the study area with a rift zone complicated by ancient volcanic structures, and also about the possible HC occurrence within the pre‑Jurassic sequence.


Key words: regional factors of oil and gas occurrence; pre-Jurassic basement; probabilisti c and stati sti cal methods; reference group; integrati on; predicti on of oil and gas explorati on targets.


For citation: Kalinin D.F., Pogareva O.I., Yanovskaya Yu.A. Building probabilistic models and prediction schemes on the basis of geophysical data: analysis of regional petroleum potential of the pre‑Jurassic complex in the Western Siberia. Geologiya nefti i gaza = Oil and gas geology. 2018;(3):77–85. DOI: 10.31087/0016‑7894‑2018‑3‑77‑85.


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D.F. Kalinin

Geologorazvedka, St. Petersburg, Russia;


O.I. Pogareva

Geologorazvedka, St. Petersburg, Russia;


Yu.A. Yanovskaya

Geologorazvedka, St. Petersburg, Russia;